Win probability
| Manager | Score | +/- | Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laurenrobbins83 7 still in play | 17.4 | +10.4 | 13% |
| ESPNfan60722550 7 still in play | 27.9 | +27.9 | 31% |
| ddpitt1223 7 still in play | 6.6 | +6.6 | 36% |
| Dhealy29 6 still in play | 31.8 | -7.2 | 36% |
| espn54647993 9 still in play | 0.0 | -10.0 | 38% |
| InsanePain1469 8 still in play | 10.0 | +10.0 | 62% |
| JohnWasniewski 7 still in play | 39.0 | +7.2 | 64% |
| jmcool7 9 still in play | 0.0 | -6.6 | 64% |
| espnfan20838594 9 still in play | 0.0 | -27.9 | 69% |
| moonnh 8 still in play | 7.0 | -10.4 | 87% |
Monte Carlo, 10 teams, re-run every poll. Lumpy on purpose: a touchdown is a six-point step, so a manager needing 22 from one player is a long shot rather than a dead certainty either way.
Biggest swings today
Nothing has swung yet
A swing is a Moment that moved somebody's win probability by more than five points.