PUNT · week 8

Week 8 · latest

WIN Sleeper Pick! up to 45% to win +6%

WIN The Garibaldi Reds down to 55% to win -6%

WIN Ball Zach Ertz down to 69% to win -12%

WIN Fantasy Batman up to 31% to win +12%

PLAYOFF The Garibaldi Reds down to 53% for the playoffs -14%

WIN Sleeper Pick! down to 38% to win -6%

WIN The Garibaldi Reds up to 62% to win +6%

WIN Trash Pandas down to 22% to win -7%

WIN OnlyFannin's up to 78% to win +7%

PLAYOFF Trash Pandas down to 21% for the playoffs -4%

WIN The Last Great LoHo GM up to 92% to win +11%

WIN What else can Gano wrong down to 8% to win -11%

PLAYOFF OnlyFannin's down to 11% for the playoffs -4%

WIN Trash Pandas up to 45% to win +7%

WIN OnlyFannin's down to 55% to win -7%

WIN Ball Zach Ertz down to 72% to win -10%

WIN Fantasy Batman up to 28% to win +10%

PLAYOFF Trash Pandas up to 25% for the playoffs +11%

PLAYOFF Sleeper Pick! up to 17% for the playoffs +10%

WIN Trash Pandas down to 38% to win -7%

WIN OnlyFannin's up to 62% to win +7%

FINAL Turbo City are done on 24.9 FINAL

FINAL Hammerheads are done on 17.3 FINAL

FINAL Ball Zach Ertz are done on 12.4 FINAL

FINAL The Last Great LoHo GM are done on 20.9 FINAL

FINAL OnlyFannin's are done on 29.9 FINAL

FINAL The Garibaldi Reds are done on 11.8 FINAL

WIN Trash Pandas up to 44% to win +5%

WIN OnlyFannin's down to 56% to win -5%

WIN OnlyFannin's up to 63% to win +5%

Details

Everything that has moved, newest first. Tap a line for the detail.

Week 8 · ten cards

epic#1

Fantasy Batman

165.2

v OnlyFannin's 139.5 0 PLAYED · 0 ON · 0 TO GO 4-3 · PROJ 165.2 · +25.7 FORM 70 · BENCH 0.0

rare#2

Turbo City

158.4

v Trash Pandas 108.3 0 PLAYED · 0 ON · 0 TO GO 7-0 · PROJ 158.4 · +50.0 FORM 69 · BENCH 0.0

rare#3

Hammerheads

154.4

v The Garibaldi Reds 109.6 0 PLAYED · 0 ON · 0 TO GO 4-3 · PROJ 154.4 · +44.8 FORM 69 · BENCH 0.0

common#4

Ball Zach Ertz

153.9

v What else can Gano wrong 125.7 0 PLAYED · 0 ON · 0 TO GO 5-2 · PROJ 153.9 · +28.2 FORM 69 · BENCH 0.0

common#5

The Last Great LoHo GM

150.8

v Sleeper Pick! 102.7 0 PLAYED · 0 ON · 0 TO GO 6-1 · PROJ 150.8 · +48.1 FORM 68 · BENCH 0.0

common#6

OnlyFannin's

139.5

v Fantasy Batman 165.2 0 PLAYED · 0 ON · 0 TO GO 1-6 · PROJ 139.5 · -25.7 FORM 67 · BENCH 0.0

common#7

What else can Gano wrong

125.7

v Ball Zach Ertz 153.9 0 PLAYED · 0 ON · 0 TO GO 1-6 · PROJ 125.7 · -28.2 FORM 65 · BENCH 0.0

common#8

The Garibaldi Reds

109.6

v Hammerheads 154.4 0 PLAYED · 0 ON · 0 TO GO 2-5 · PROJ 109.6 · -44.8 FORM 63 · BENCH 0.0

common#9

Trash Pandas

108.3

v Turbo City 158.4 0 PLAYED · 0 ON · 0 TO GO 3-4 · PROJ 108.3 · -50.0 FORM 63 · BENCH 0.0

cursed#10

Sleeper Pick!

102.7

v The Last Great LoHo GM 150.8 0 PLAYED · 0 ON · 0 TO GO 2-5 · PROJ 102.7 · -48.1 FORM 62 · BENCH 0.0

Details

Ranked on form, not on points. Score colour is the chance of winning: green 60%+, amber 40-60%, red under 40%. HOT is starters ahead of where they should be by now. Tap a card for the lineup.

Week 8 · live

The Garibaldi Reds 2-5 · 8 in play 11.8 proj 138.2

Sleeper Pick! 2-5 · 9 in play 0.0 proj 133.4

Trash Pandas 3-4 · 9 in play 0.0 proj 116.8

OnlyFannin's 1-6 · 7 in play 29.9 proj 135.6

What else can Gano wrong 1-6 · 9 in play 0.0 proj 111.2

The Last Great LoHo GM 6-1 · 8 in play 20.9 proj 160.5

Ball Zach Ertz 5-2 · 8 in play 12.4 proj 120.7

Fantasy Batman 4-3 · 8 in play 0.0 proj 104.6

Turbo City 7-0 · 8 in play 24.9 proj 143.7

Hammerheads 4-3 · 8 in play 17.3 proj 159.9

Details

Live scores, with where each matchup is projected to finish.

Bench regret

Team	Score	Left
The Last Great LoHo GM	150.8best 0.0	0.0
The Garibaldi Reds	109.6best 0.0	0.0
Hammerheads	154.4best 0.0	0.0
Trash Pandas	108.3best 0.0	0.0
OnlyFannin's	139.5best 0.0	0.0
Ball Zach Ertz	153.9best 0.0	0.0
Sleeper Pick!	102.7best 0.0	0.0
Turbo City	158.4best 0.0	0.0
Fantasy Batman	165.2best 0.0	0.0
What else can Gano wrong	125.7best 0.0	0.0

Details

Points left on the bench, and the single swap that cost the most.

Playoff odds

Team	W-L	Odds	Needs
1. Turbo City	7-0	100%	IN
2. The Last Great LoHo GM	6-1	100%	IN
3. Ball Zach Ertz	5-2	99%	WIN 2
4. Fantasy Batman	4-3	98%	WIN 3
5. Hammerheads	4-3	96%	WIN 3
6. Trash Pandas	3-4	21%	WIN 5
7. The Garibaldi Reds	2-5	53%	WIN 5
8. Sleeper Pick!	2-5	17%	NEEDS HELP
9. OnlyFannin's	1-6	14%	WIN 6
10. What else can Gano wrong	1-6	2%	NEEDS HELP

Details

From 2,500 simulated seasons against the real fixture list.

Who is in trouble

Team	Score	+/-	Win
What else can Gano wrong	0.0	-20.9	7%
Trash Pandas	0.0	-29.9	29%
Fantasy Batman	0.0	-12.4	31%
Sleeper Pick!	0.0	-11.8	46%
Hammerheads	17.3	-7.6	67%

Details

Anybody behind, with their live chance of turning it round.

Commentary

MILESTONE OnlyFannin's Christian Watson through 20.0 for OnlyFannin's
TOUCHDOWN Ball Zach Ertz Touchdown Bryce Young! Ball Zach Ertz takes 7.0.
TOUCHDOWN OnlyFannin's Jalen Coker scores for OnlyFannin's, who has been staring at this game for twenty minutes.
MILESTONE Turbo City Chuba Hubbard through 20.0 for Turbo City
MILESTONE The Last Great LoHo GM Twenty up for Matthew Golden. A solid afternoon's work for The Last Great LoHo GM.
BIG PLAY Hammerheads Tucker Kraft gets loose. 2.4 for Hammerheads.
MILESTONE The Last Great LoHo GM Josh Jacobs through twenty for The Last Great LoHo GM.
TOUCHDOWN Sleeper Pick! That is a touchdown for Jordan Love, who Sleeper Pick! did not start.
TOUCHDOWN The Last Great LoHo GM Six and change for Josh Jacobs. The Last Great LoHo GM is up to 20.7.
BENCH DISASTER The Last Great LoHo GM Somewhere on The Last Great LoHo GM's bench, Josh Jacobs is on 20.7 and wondering what he did wrong.
MILESTONE Sleeper Pick! Jordan Love passes twenty. That is a starter earning its slot.
BENCH DISASTER Sleeper Pick! 20.5 points on Sleeper Pick!'s bench. That lineup was set on purpose.
BIG PLAY The Garibaldi Reds Tetairoa McMillan breaks one. 2.4 for The Garibaldi Reds.
BIG PLAY The Last Great LoHo GM Good gain for Matthew Golden and 2.4 on The Last Great LoHo GM's pile.
TOUCHDOWN Sleeper Pick! Jordan Love punches it in. Somewhere, somebody is telling the room they called it.
BENCH DISASTER Sleeper Pick! Jordan Love has 19.0 on Sleeper Pick!'s bench. Kyler Murray has 0.0 in the QB.
TOUCHDOWN The Last Great LoHo GM In! Matthew Golden scores and The Last Great LoHo GM has 9.4 more than it had a second ago.
TOUCHDOWN The Last Great LoHo GM Josh Jacobs scores. The BE earns its place for once.
TOUCHDOWN OnlyFannin's Touchdown. Christian Watson. OnlyFannin's would like to remind everyone who drafted him.
TOUCHDOWN Turbo City Touchdown! 6.1 for Turbo City, which needed it more than it will admit.
TOUCHDOWN Sleeper Pick! Another one for Jordan Love. Sleeper Pick!'s afternoon improves without any involvement.
TOUCHDOWN Hammerheads Six from the tight end. Hammerheads gets 8.2 from the position nobody plans for.
BIG PLAY OnlyFannin's Big one from Christian Watson! OnlyFannin's on 4.8.
TOUCHDOWN Ball Zach Ertz Eagles D/ST in the end zone. Ball Zach Ertz has gone very quiet, which means it is good.
MILESTONE Fantasy Batman Fantasy Batman reaches a hundred, on 116.0, and is not finished.

Details

Every play the engine thought was worth saying something about.

Cheer

Game	At stake
MIN at DET not started · 9 starters, 6 teams · decides Sleeper Pick! v The Garibaldi Reds	148.9 to come
BUF at BAL not started · 8 starters, 5 teams · decides Sleeper Pick! v The Garibaldi Reds	126.4 to come
DAL at ARI not started · 7 starters, 5 teams · decides Fantasy Batman v Ball Zach Ertz	124.7 to come
PIT at CLE not started · 10 starters, 8 teams · decides OnlyFannin's v Trash Pandas, Hammerheads v Turbo City	121.8 to come
TEN at CIN not started · 5 starters, 5 teams · decides OnlyFannin's v Trash Pandas	104.5 to come
SEA at CHI not started · 8 starters, 7 teams · decides Hammerheads v Turbo City, Fantasy Batman v Ball Zach Ertz	102.7 to come
NYJ at LV not started · 7 starters, 5 teams · decides Sleeper Pick! v The Garibaldi Reds	92.8 to come
LAR at LAC not started · 5 starters, 4 teams · 88.8 still to come	88.8 to come
JAX at IND not started · 6 starters, 5 teams · decides Sleeper Pick! v The Garibaldi Reds	82.5 to come
KC at DEN not started · 5 starters, 5 teams · decides Hammerheads v Turbo City	65.0 to come
TB at ATL not started · 4 starters, 3 teams · decides OnlyFannin's v Trash Pandas	59.4 to come
NE at MIA not started · 4 starters, 2 teams · 58.9 still to come	58.9 to come
WSH at PHI not started · 4 starters, 3 teams · decides Fantasy Batman v Ball Zach Ertz	31.1 to come
GB at CAR final · 7 starters, 6 teams · decides Hammerheads v Turbo City	117.2 delivered

Details

Points still to come from every starter in each fixture. Tap a game for who they belong to and which head-to-heads it swings.

The season so far

Season shape

Team	Avg	Trend
Turbo City	154.6	-26.4
The Last Great LoHo GM	153.1	-9.5
Fantasy Batman	138.5	-18.4
Hammerheads	131.7	+59.7
Ball Zach Ertz	130.2	-19.1
The Garibaldi Reds	127.1	-14.6
Sleeper Pick!	120.2	-3.0
OnlyFannin's	119.7	-12.0
Trash Pandas	117.1	+3.4
What else can Gano wrong	116.4	+29.4

Details

Weeks 1 to 7, all on one scale (81.7 to 179.3). Dashed rule is that team's own average; the faint line above it is what they could have started. Trend is the last three weeks against the three before.

Seed roulette

Turbo City 100%

The Last Great LoHo GM 100%

Ball Zach Ertz 99%

Fantasy Batman 98%

Hammerheads 96%

The Garibaldi Reds 53%

Trash Pandas 21%

Sleeper Pick! 17%

OnlyFannin's 14%

What else can Gano wrong 2%

Details

2500 simulated seasons, split by where each team finishes. Brighter is a better seed; grey is missing out. Top 6 make it. A narrow bar is a settled season, a wide one is a team whose whole year is still open.

Scoring clock

OnlyFannin's 22%

Turbo City 17%

The Last Great LoHo GM 13%

Hammerheads 11%

Ball Zach Ertz 10%

The Garibaldi Reds 9%

Sleeper Pick! 0%

Trash Pandas 0%

What else can Gano wrong 0%

Fantasy Batman 0%

Thu1pm4pmSun nightMon night

Details

Solid is banked, faded is still on the field. The figure on the right is how much of that team's week is already decided: 100% means they can only watch.

Boom or metronome

nobody wants to draw them boom or bust honest the worst place to be TC Joe BIV HAVE MOON CARK PITT Mill HEAL ROBB

14.5 steady wild 41.6

Details

Up the page is a higher average (112.4 to 158.6), right is a wilder one. The crosshair is the league's own average and spread, so every team is placed against the room rather than against a round number.

The all-play grid

Week 8											All-play
OnlyFannin's											9–0 won
Turbo City											8–1 won
The Last Great LoHo GM											7–2 won
Hammerheads											6–3 lost
Ball Zach Ertz											5–4 won
The Garibaldi Reds											4–5 won
Trash Pandas											0–9 lost
Sleeper Pick!											0–9 lost
Fantasy Batman											0–9 lost
What else can Gano wrong											0–9 lost

Details

Green means that row's team outscored that column's this week. The ringed cell is the fixture they actually drew: a row of green next to a loss is the unluckiest week in the league.

The gauntlet

Sleeper Pick! 136.4 avg

What else can Gano wrong 135.0 avg

Ball Zach Ertz 134.5 avg

Trash Pandas 134.4 avg

OnlyFannin's 132.4 avg

Hammerheads 131.2 avg

The Garibaldi Reds 130.1 avg

Fantasy Batman 126.5 avg

Turbo City 124.8 avg

The Last Great LoHo GM 123.2 avg

Details

7 weeks left. Each mark is an opponent's average, each bar one standard deviation either side, on a scale from 81.9 to 174.9. The league averages 130.9: red means a harder run-in than that. A wide bar is somebody you might catch on a bad week.

Position ledger

Team	QB	RB	WR	TE	FLEX	Total
OnlyFannin's	0.0	0.0	20.3	0.0	9.6	29.9
Turbo City	0.0	24.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	24.9
The Last Great LoHo GM	0.0	0.0	20.9	0.0	0.0	20.9
Hammerheads	0.0	0.0	0.0	17.3	0.0	17.3
Ball Zach Ertz	12.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	12.4
The Garibaldi Reds	0.0	0.0	11.8	0.0	0.0	11.8
Trash Pandas	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Sleeper Pick!	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Fantasy Batman	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
What else can Gano wrong	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
median	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Details

Each figure is the points that slot has scored. The colour is how it compares with the league's median for the same slot, so a quarterback is only ever measured against quarterbacks: green is carrying the team, red is the thing to trade for, and no colour is a slot doing exactly what everybody else's is. Tap a row for the lineup behind it.

Schedule swap

with their fixtures											Real
Hammerheads	+0.0	-1.0	·	+0.0	-3.0	+0.0	-1.0	+2.0	-1.0	+0.0	4-3
Ball Zach Ertz	-2.0	-3.0	-1.0	-2.0	-5.0	·	-2.0	-2.0	-1.0	-3.0	5-2
Turbo City	-1.0	-1.0	-1.0	-2.0	-4.0	-2.0	-1.0	·	-2.0	-3.0	7-0
What else can Gano wrong	+4.0	+1.0	+2.0	+2.0	+0.0	+1.0	+1.0	+3.0	+0.0	·	1-6
The Last Great LoHo GM	·	-2.0	+0.0	-1.0	-3.0	-1.0	-2.0	+0.0	-1.0	-2.0	6-1
The Garibaldi Reds	+2.0	·	+2.0	+2.0	-1.0	+1.0	+1.0	+2.0	+0.0	+1.0	2-5
OnlyFannin's	+2.0	+1.0	+2.0	+0.0	·	+1.0	+1.0	+2.0	+1.0	-1.0	1-6
Sleeper Pick!	+2.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	-1.0	-1.0	·	+1.0	+0.0	-1.0	2-5
Fantasy Batman	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+1.0	-2.0	+0.0	-1.0	+0.0	·	-1.0	4-3
Trash Pandas	+0.0	-2.0	-1.0	·	-1.0	-2.0	-1.0	-1.0	-1.0	-2.0	3-4

Details

Rows are whose scores, columns are whose schedule, over 7 settled weeks. The number is wins gained or lost against that team's real record. Green means somebody else's fixtures would have been kinder.

The decisions

Next week · the look-ahead

16 holes across the league · 1 of 10 lineups clean · 67.8 pts sitting on benches

OnlyFannin's 31%

117.8 projected 139.5 and 63% with the fixes

Q WR · Christian Watson nobody on the bench can cover it

BYE QB · Aaron Rodgers start Caleb Williams +21.8

Sleeper Pick! 69%

128.1 projected

No holes. Lineup is set.

The Garibaldi Reds 13%

115.5 projected 126.6 and 21% with the fixes

BYE RB · Tony Pollard start Aaron Jones Sr. +11.1

BYE K · Chris Boswell nobody on the bench can cover it

Q RB · Zach Charbonnet nobody on the bench can cover it

The Last Great LoHo GM 87%

154.2 projected 154.7 and 85% with the fixes

Q TE · Colston Loveland start Isaiah Likely +0.4

Trash Pandas 43%

108.6 projected 117.0 and 52% with the fixes

OUT FLEX · Emeka Egbuka start Woody Marks +8.4

BYE RB · Rico Dowdle nobody on the bench can cover it

Fantasy Batman 57%

115.7 projected

Q WR · George Pickens nobody on the bench can cover it

Q FLEX · Rashid Shaheed nobody on the bench can cover it

IR RB · Dameon Pierce nobody on the bench can cover it

What else can Gano wrong 23%

115.7 projected 134.0 and 41% with the fixes

Q WR · A.J. Brown nobody on the bench can cover it

BYE WR · Germie Bernard start Malik Nabers +18.3

Hammerheads 77%

140.6 projected

BYE D/ST · Steelers D/ST nobody on the bench can cover it

Ball Zach Ertz 61%

136.0 projected

Q RB · Breece Hall nobody on the bench can cover it

Turbo City 39%

123.6 projected 131.4 and 43% with the fixes

BYE RB · Jaylen Warren start Jonah Coleman +7.9

Details

Week 9's lineups as they stand. A hole is a starter on a bye, ruled out, projected for nothing, or doubtful. The fix is the best healthy player on that team's own bench who can fill the slot. Win chance is simulated from next week's projections; the second figure is with every fix made. Tap a team for the whole lineup.

Promise vs delivery

Team	Lineup	QB	RB	WR	TE	K	D/ST
Fantasy Batman	111%4/7 beat it	100	139	111	97	111	82
Turbo City	110%5/7 beat it	88	92	137	108	103	97
The Last Great LoHo GM	107%5/7 beat it	100	115	92	79	141	160
Ball Zach Ertz	99%4/7 beat it	92	91	124	99	106	34
Hammerheads	98%3/7 beat it	107	98	102	94	77	96
The Garibaldi Reds	94%2/7 beat it	108	81	121	71	72	65
What else can Gano wrong	91%2/7 beat it	101	88	82	104	105	89
OnlyFannin's	87%3/7 beat it	94	83	97	90	65	76
Trash Pandas	87%1/7 beat it	87	84	72	108	73	129
Sleeper Pick!	85%2/7 beat it	84	92	80	98	86	53

Details

Each figure is the percentage of ESPN's projection that position's starters actually scored, over 7 finished weeks. Over 100 in green means ESPN undersells that team; under 100 in red means it oversells. The league as a whole delivered 96.9%. Tap a team for what the gap is worth in win chance.

Draft receipts

pick 1top 24.9 ptspick 160

Team	Best pick	Kept	Value
Turbo City	Chuba Hubbardround 9 · +24.8	12/16	+14.0
The Last Great LoHo GM	Matthew Goldenround 12 · +20.9	12/16	+9.8
OnlyFannin's	Christian Watsonround 15 · +19.7	10/16	+9.3
Hammerheads	Tucker Kraftround 8 · +17.3	14/16	+7.1
Ball Zach Ertz	Bryce Younground 15 · +11.4	13/16	+4.5
The Garibaldi Reds	Tetairoa McMillanround 5 · +11.8	13/16	-0.5
What else can Gano wrong	A.J. Brownround 1 · +0.0	12/16	-11.6
Sleeper Pick!	Ashton Jeantyround 1 · +0.0	12/16	-11.7
Fantasy Batman	Kenneth Walker IIIround 1 · +0.0	15/16	-11.7
Trash Pandas	Christian McCaffreyround 1 · +0.0	15/16	-12.1

Details

Every dot is a pick, placed by where it went and how many points it has scored this season, the live week included. The line is what the 20 picks around each one scored, so a dot above it beat its slot. Value adds that up across a team's picks; kept is how many are still on the roster that drafted them. Best pick of the draft so far: Chuba Hubbard, round 9, +24.8.

Move ledger

Team	Moves	Net
OnlyFannin'sbest add Tyler Bass, 0.0	2	+0.0
The Garibaldi Redsbest add Jaguars D/ST, 0.0	1	+0.0
Sleeper Pick!best add Omar Cooper Jr., 0.0	1	+0.0
The Last Great LoHo GM	0	+0.0
Hammerheads	0	+0.0
Trash Pandas	0	+0.0
Ball Zach Ertz	0	+0.0
Fantasy Batman	0	+0.0
What else can Gano wrong	0	+0.0
Turbo Citybest add Jonah Coleman, 0.0	1	-7.0

Details

5 waiver claims, free-agent adds and trades this season. Net is the points the players a team brought in have scored since the move, minus the points the players it let go have scored since, wherever they went and whoever started them. Best move of the season: OnlyFannin's in week 8, +0.0.